Friday, August 28, 2015

Since 2004: more German citizens leave the country than are returning

From our Text Analysis 101 Refresher files.

Not all refugees can stay - what does 'can' mean?

Can (German können) is an interesting little word, isn't it?

If you were around for the U.S. presidential campaign of 2008, you will recall its positive use in "Yes, we can".

Since you are reading this post, you have also been around long enough to see it used as a way to get out of some demand or some request that was inconvenient or difficult. The author of these lines has used 'can' as a cop out, too, both with and without the implied apology of a preceding 'sorry'.

Sorry, I can't drive you to the store tomorrow.

Sorry, I can't loan you a hundred dollars.

Sorry, I can't give you a raise.

Both of the first examples may be objectively correct - my car is at the shop, and I have less than 100 dollars to my name.  Or they serve as socially acceptable ways to deny a request without the need for a direct, more personal, more emotionally loaded and blunt "I do not want to do this or that".

This use of 'can not' in a sense obfuscates the underlying facts, or - to be more precise - the 'frame of reference', and it is not the only set of words that do this. 'Can not', as well as its cousins in obfuscation 'need', 'must', and 'have to' always merit special attention.

Being such great 'dual use' words and such integral components of speech makes them wonderful devices in public discourse, and the German debate about the influx of refugees is a brilliant example.

Those uneasy with the influx of humans across the Mediterranean or over land via the Balkans use the arguments "we cannot let in everybody" and "not everybody can stay" on every talk show (so the non-TV watching author is told) and in every newspaper article.

In an in depth analysis or discussion, reasons and justifications tend to be advanced which provide insight into the underlying frame of reference. Unfortunately, we get a lot of soundbites that are just a few sentences long, vapid chains of phrases designed to avoid the question of why.

The question most dreaded by parents: why?

Ironically, anti-refugee protesters shouting "We don't want you here" are more honest than politicians or journalists with their "not everybody can stay". Try it by asking "so, you don't want everybody to stay?"

Incidentally, statistical data show that not everybody wants to stay in Germany. These population data from 1991 to 2013 show that many hundreds of thousands of "migrants" leave Germany every year. For our American readers used to huge deportation numbers, no, the German departures are not deportation figures. There were just over 10 000 deportations from Germany in 2013, mostly to Balkan countries.

[Update 1/29/2016]
According to the German federal statistics office, more German citizens have emigrated between 2005 and 2014 (latest available figures) than have returned from foreign countries.

For foreigners, the numbers show uninterrupted net immigration since 2000, with a negative balance for the two preceding years. While the total net figures, including refugees, vary significantly from year to year, many foreign nationals leave Germany every year.

The 2014 figures for foreign nationals are:
To Germany       left Germany          net
1 342 529765 605576 924

The lowest recent net numbers are from 2008
To Germany       left Germany          net
573 815563 13010 685

Refugees who came in 2015 will without doubt increase the net value, but we are seeing the first reports of refugees returning to their home country, for example Iraq.

Editorial note: title of the post changed.

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