Saturday, March 25, 2017

German federal parliament rule change to thwart the populist AfD after upcoming elections

It is fair to say there is no love for the "populist" AfD (Alternative for Germany) among the established German parties.

The blogster firmly believes in equal opportunity in skewering parties, and has done so for the AfD too, for example, when one of its leaders warned that the refugee influx in 2015 was "like barbarians flooding the borders of the Roman Empire".
The blogster reminded the gentleman that the barbarians flooding the empire had in fact been Germans.

From outside the country, the lines between the good democrats and the bad "right-wing" AfD may appear clear and simple. Reality has been a lot more complex. The big conservative parties CDU (Christian Democrats, present in all of Germany except Bavaria) and CSU (Christian Social Union, present in Bavaria only) have had strong right-wing factions ever since they were founded after World War II.

These right-wingers were not called right-wingers like or extremist, both terms used by the main stream media for the AfD.

Right-wing voters and politicians of the CDU/CSU were instead referred to as "value conservatives", "true conservatives", or simply as "very conservative" in a "people's party".

The official language of the parties described the desired phenomenon as "there should bot be a party to the right of the CDU/CSU".

To the simple minded blogster, this looks like a nifty dog whistle. Yet, it works just as in the U.S., where Republicans can be as xenophobic and nasty as they want as long as they add the usual disclaimers regarding their commitment to democracy and the rule of law.

Occasionally, someone of note in German pierces this nicely constructed narrative but not much happens. Take for example a piece by one of the publishers of the mainstream centrist daily Frankfurter Allgemeine discussed in this post: Publisher of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung sees Bavarian Christian Social Union as home of populist AfD voters.

The established parties have been using all the tricks in the book and some off the books to weaken the AfD, especially since the party managed to get into several state legislatures in a string of state elections in 2015.

Here are some examples:
In the state of Rhineland Palatinate, the governing social democrats initially refused to join a televised debate if an AfD candidate was present.
In Wuerttemberg, a social democrat refused to shake hands with an AfD member of the state legislature.
In Bremen, the established majority parties set out to change the rules for the "independent" public broadcaster to prevent the AfD from gaining a seat on the oversight body.

The latest move comes from the leader of the federal legislature in Berlin.

The CDU president of the federal parliament (a position similar to the U.S. Speaker of the House) suggested to change the rules for the largely ceremonial position of "president by seniority" (something like pro tempore) of the parliament.

Since the founding of the new republic, the president by seniority has been the oldest member of parliament.

His or her only real job was to prepare the first session of a new parliament after national elections and initiate the election of the speaker.

Nobody had a problem with giving the oldest person in the room a day in the limelight until now.

That's because the parties have recently finished the process of nominating candidates for the election in Fall, and it turns out the the AfD has fielded the oldest person of all parties very close to the top of its list of candidates. Since all polls forecast that the AfD will clear the 5% limit and get into the federal parliament, this all but ensures a place in parliament for him in the proportional system used in Germany.

And guess what?

The AfD person would be the pro temp.

So, the current president of parliament came out with a call to change how the pro temp is appointed.

Instead of by age, the new system would make the longest serving member of parliament the pro temp.

The argument made in public is that this would ensure an experienced member of parliament would prepare the first session of the body.

The real reason, mentioned in some articles, is to prevent the AfD from getting the job.

The social democrats, the current junior partner in Ms. Merkel's government, waited a few days and have since signaled agreement.  Their speaker, Mr. Oppermann, finds is a great idea to have an experienced member as pro temp.

Of course, he would. Even though nobody has worried about experience for half a century.

A nice side effect of the change would be that it basically automatically favors one of the larger parties, the CDU/CSU and the SPD because only they can be assured to have some long term members in parliament.

Thus, the rule change has a majority and is pretty much a done deal.

So, expect Germany's pro temp in Fall to be none other than Mr. Schaeuble, famous for his hard nosed politics and also for having handled cash donations in brown paper envelopes a few decades back.

[Update 4/28/2017] The deed is done, with the required approval of the full parliament only  formality. The longest serving MP will get the job.

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