Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Nobody wants a trade war - writes ex publisher and gent who once forgot taxes

Capitalism is tough, which may or may not be the reason former DIE ZEIT publisher Theo Sommer quotes the Communist Manifesto of Mrs. Marx and Engels in a commentary of said paper titled "Nobody wants a trade war".

The blogster never fails to cringe when someone writes "nobody wants a war". Because penning this means one of two things: either it is true, in which case it is utterly unnecessary to waste bits or ink on it - or it is not quite true and the author implies "but..."

The quote from the manifesto is: The need of a constantly expanding market for its products chases the bourgeoisie over the entire surface of the globe. It must nestle everywhere, settle everywhere, establish connexions everywhere.*

Next comes the switcheroo: If we replace "bourgeoisie" with "People's Republic of China", we get the best description of the policy of the Beijing regime.

It is a nifty rhetorical device, playing on China's communist as well on its capitalist traits. Making the "regime" - a term even worse in German than in English - somewhat of a super predator.

Then comes the claim that an insatiable hunger for raw materials, food and energy has driven the Chinese into all continents, the claim that they hoard any and all raw materials they can get their hands on. This is followed by a brief blurb on how they have been buying tools and machines since the turn of the century and another take on insatiable when the gentleman says but in the past five or six years this has no longer been enough for them - they have since taken to buying the factories that make these tools and machines.

To be fair, he does then describe benefits of trade between Germany/the EU and China, and there is no doubt that some Chinese practices have caused hardship and losses to German companies.

Mr. Sommer addresses the issue of reciprocity, including limits on market access, intellectual property squabbles, and the mandatory set up of joint ventures.

If you ask why a leading German paper would run such a piece, the answer comes a bit later: it is about what the author as well as German politicians call Chinese investments in German high tech. 

There have, in fact, been three acquisitions by Chinese companies that worried some in Germany.

They also worried the American intelligence services.

A Chinese company bought Germany's flagship robotics company Kuka, ramping up from an initial small investment in 2015 to a 95% share in 2016.
The irony with this deal is that both German and EU efforts to find a European buyer for Kuka failed miserably.

The next deal, however, really got the current version of "yellow peril" going.

The sale of troubled German semiconductor machinery maker Aixtron had been approved by the German government when it was suddenly halted by that very same government.

Initial reports on the reversal were fuzzy in their attribution, mumbling that "German intelligence sources" said that "American intelligence services" had informed the Germans there was "a possibility" of China using Aixtron products in its nuclear industry.

U.S. intelligence intervention reversing an already approved sale did not fly too well with some in Germany, which may explain why "nuclear industry" was swiftly replaced with "anti proliferation" effort and "western security concerns". It did not help the Chinese case that a company with close ties to the interested buyer cancelled a big order at Aixtron, sending its stock down.

The third strike, if you will, came when another Chinese company announced the acquisition of the traditional light bulb daughter of German lighting company Osram.

The gentleman of DIE ZEIT muses whether the Osram deal will be approved by the German government: Could security concerns exist in this case, too?

In incandescent light bulb production?

Osram is trying to sell this part of its business because it largely missed the transition to LED and other high tech lighting technologies in the fist place.

Don't worry, lightbulbs will continue to go off in popular parlance long after you have replaced them with LEDs.

Let's return to the Communist Manifesto for a second. It has been just over 100 years since Germany did its must nestle everywhere, settle everywhere, establish connexions everywhere thing in China using military force.

As long as the PRC does not invade a harbor in northern Germany to set up a colony, you should really tone it down.

*  "Das Bedürfnis nach einem stets ausgedehnteren Absatz für ihre Produkte jagt die Bourgeoisie über die ganze Erdkugel. Überall muss sie sich einnisten, überall anbauen, überall Verbindungen herstellen."

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